“What began as an expression of legitimate grievances, however, quickly spiraled into the world’s latest Color Revolution attempt.”
Korybko is seriously getting ahead of himself here. Maybe in a few weeks or months this will sound like a prophetic statement, but right now it is a serious stretch of the imagination and most of all: Korybko is strangely mixing up the different sides and parties: if anybody it is (some of) the organisers of the original ‘peaceful’ protest who are the ones with ties to the NED/USAID/OTPOR complex, while the ‘radical youth who started throwing rocks and petrol bombs at police officers’ are squarely and decidedly on the other side. So the specific scenario Korybko proposes here requires drastic suspension of disbelief…
As a general point, of course, it is valid: the organisers of the protests already seem to have lost control over the crowds and are running behind events – first announcing a suspension of the protests, then realising nobody listens to them and the protests continue anyway, then rushing to call people to join the protests after all…
It is worth remembering how very similar protests in Syria and elsewhere have been infiltrated/taken over very quickly by armed elements controlled by various interested outside and inside parties. With a fragmented state like Lebanon, where not only different regions but different institutions and departments are controlled by different factions, and with pre-existing entrenched group identities which people very quickly (are forced to) return to when shit hits the fan, the risk of protest, unrest and violence being exploited or pushed into a certain direction by either Lebanese regime factions or ‘outside interests’ is very real. The protesters should be aware of that and closely guard against it to preserve their own agency.
On the other hand, the question is how can they possibly do so? The country is, as always, flooded with weapons, filled to the brim with refugees from the Syrian and Palestinian war zones, divided into bitterly opposed sectarian and political sides, with a large diaspora continuously entering and leaving the country. Powerful embassies, such as the US, French, Saudi, Qatari and Iranian to name the most obvious ones, control entire Lebanese constituencies and have massive political influence. Moreover, the course of any evolution in the country can be drastically changed if the southern nuisance decides to raise its ugly head in attack again (as it is continuously threatening to do in its eternal delusional plans to ‘finish off Hizbullah once and for all’)…
So many factors are beyond control that predictions are virtually senseless.
“Lebanese protesters demonstrated in Beirut this weekend as part of the “You Stink” movement, which was organized by citizens fed up with the garbage that had been piling up in their streets for weeks.
What began as an expression of legitimate grievances, however, quickly spiraled into the world’s latest Color Revolution attempt.
Some radical youth started throwing rocks and petrol bombs at police officers (uncannily reminiscent of the earlier hijacking of the peaceful-intentioned “Electric Yerevan” protests), which resulted in a forceful counter-response that was then immediately used to ‘justify’ the movement’s transformation into one of open regime change ends.
The thing is, however, Lebanon doesn’t really have a functioning government to begin with, having been without a President for over a year. If the Prime Minister steps down as he threatened to do, then it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis that might bring the formerly civil war-torn and multi-confessional state back to the brink of domestic conflict.
Any significant destabilization in Lebanon is bound to have a serious impact on Syria, which would be put in a difficult position by the potential cutoff of the strategic Beirut-to-Damascus highway and the possible redeployment of valuable Hezbollah fighters back to their homeland.”